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Predicting Group D of EURO 2020: history, odds and data analytics

Every team in group D shares an intimate match day; though the matches are dated into different tournaments and years, there is still a sombre and bitter history.

The Manc - 11th June 2021

June is around the corner and Euro 2020 is upon us. Who will dominate the group stages and be at the top of the group table? Which teams will qualify for the next round of the tournament? Who will we witness being booted out of the championship? 

The much awaited action is starting on 11 June and for a whole month we are ready to eat, watch soccer, sleep and repeat! There is a different kind of excitement aroused by nations leagues compared to clubs football. There’s a sense of unity and calmness that draws people together to stand in solidarity in support of their country.  

The usual goal forecasting, and guessing who will get which award has already started. England’s Three Lions are this year’s favourite to win the tournament, and we must say, the odds are really in  their favour. Bookies already have their predictions at all stages and  for a complete analysis, you can check out Unibet Euro 2020. If history has anything to do with it, we think France also has a pretty good chance of taking the cup a second time after the win in 2000.  

Since a lot of noise is around group D though, we decided to take a look at the countries represented there, and what big data is predicting versus what punters are saying. England, Scotland, Croatia and the Czech Republic are in this group and here’s a look at their previous meetings.

History between the teams. 

Every team in group D shares an intimate match day; though the matches are dated into different tournaments and years, there is still a sombre and bitter history. 

Without a doubt, the oldest and the most talked-about rivalry is the England vs Scotland matchup. This is one game we think will keep everyone on their toes, given the teams’ history. As much as England’s Three Lions are expected to be on top of their game, Scotland’s Tartan Terriers will definitely bring a stern challenge. 

The Tartan Terriers suffer from deep resentment of losses against the Three Lions. The Scottish side was last seen winning against the English side way back in 1999, and the closest they came to winning was in 2017 when they drew 2-2 with England in the FIFA World Cup. Because they came so close, they think they can conquer England this time around. Some of the best moments of both teams can be found here.

Another team that might bring a challenge for the England team is the Croatian side. The two share a rollercoaster ride of losses, draws and wins. 2018 saw these two teams going up against each other and trying to prove who is more dominant. During the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Croatia had the upper hand as they won 2-1. But, England tightened up their defence and drew 0-0 with Croatia in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League. These two teams have a vendetta to settle and determine who is the better team and in turn, gain more points.  

The Czech Republic is one team that most people are underestimating. It cannot be argued that this side has a very poor history against any of their group opponents. Against Croatia, Czech does not have a single win, against Scotland their last win was way back in 2010 and against England they have a recent win of 2-1. This win against the Three Lions gives the Czech team some confidence that they might actually make it into the next round.  

Winning Odds

Gareth Southgate’s men are in extraordinary form at the moment. They won seven of their eight matches during the qualification stage and of those seven, they scored 37 goals. Increasing their odds of winning is the fact that three of their group matches are being played at Wembley stadium. England is literally playing most of their matches on home turf. This places their winning odds at 5/11, making them the most-likely winners of the tournament. 

A team that has been a headache to the Three Lions, Croatia, comes second on the best group odds. Their odds are 7/2. They are the 9th favourites to win the tournament. The Czech Republic and Scotland take the third and fourth spot respectively. The Czechs’ odds are at 10/1whilst Scotland’s are at 16/1. 

Image by Mitch Rosen on Unsplash