Predicting Group D of EURO 2020: history, odds and data analytics
Every team in group D shares an intimate match day; though the matches are dated into different tournaments and years, there is still a sombre and bitter history.
June is around the corner and Euro 2020 is upon us. Who will dominate the group stages and be at the top of the group table? Which teams will qualify for the next round of the tournament? Who will we witness being booted out of the championship?
The much awaited action is starting on 11 June and for a whole month we are ready to eat, watch soccer, sleep and repeat! There is a different kind of excitement aroused by nations leagues compared to clubs football. There’s a sense of unity and calmness that draws people together to stand in solidarity in support of their country.
The usual goal forecasting, and guessing who will get which award has already started. England’s Three Lions are this year’s favourite to win the tournament, and we must say, the odds are really in their favour. Bookies already have their predictions at all stages and for a complete analysis, you can check out Unibet Euro 2020. If history has anything to do with it, we think France also has a pretty good chance of taking the cup a second time after the win in 2000.
Since a lot of noise is around group D though, we decided to take a look at the countries represented there, and what big data is predicting versus what punters are saying. England, Scotland, Croatia and the Czech Republic are in this group and here’s a look at their previous meetings.
History between the teams.
Every team in group D shares an intimate match day; though the matches are dated into different tournaments and years, there is still a sombre and bitter history.
Without a doubt, the oldest and the most talked-about rivalry is the England vs Scotland matchup. This is one game we think will keep everyone on their toes, given the teams’ history. As much as England’s Three Lions are expected to be on top of their game, Scotland’s Tartan Terriers will definitely bring a stern challenge.
The Tartan Terriers suffer from deep resentment of losses against the Three Lions. The Scottish side was last seen winning against the English side way back in 1999, and the closest they came to winning was in 2017 when they drew 2-2 with England in the FIFA World Cup. Because they came so close, they think they can conquer England this time around. Some of the best moments of both teams can be found here.
Another team that might bring a challenge for the England team is the Croatian side. The two share a rollercoaster ride of losses, draws and wins. 2018 saw these two teams going up against each other and trying to prove who is more dominant. During the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Croatia had the upper hand as they won 2-1. But, England tightened up their defence and drew 0-0 with Croatia in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League. These two teams have a vendetta to settle and determine who is the better team and in turn, gain more points.
The Czech Republic is one team that most people are underestimating. It cannot be argued that this side has a very poor history against any of their group opponents. Against Croatia, Czech does not have a single win, against Scotland their last win was way back in 2010 and against England they have a recent win of 2-1. This win against the Three Lions gives the Czech team some confidence that they might actually make it into the next round.
Winning Odds
Gareth Southgate’s men are in extraordinary form at the moment. They won seven of their eight matches during the qualification stage and of those seven, they scored 37 goals. Increasing their odds of winning is the fact that three of their group matches are being played at Wembley stadium. England is literally playing most of their matches on home turf. This places their winning odds at 5/11, making them the most-likely winners of the tournament.
A team that has been a headache to the Three Lions, Croatia, comes second on the best group odds. Their odds are 7/2. They are the 9th favourites to win the tournament. The Czech Republic and Scotland take the third and fourth spot respectively. The Czechs’ odds are at 10/1whilst Scotland’s are at 16/1.
Salford City FC have signed an exciting Under-20 World Cup winner on loan
Danny Jones
Salford City FC have quietly done arguably one of the best little bits of business this summer with their new signing, picking up an exciting youth forward and Under-20 World Cup winner on loan.
Announced this week, 21-year-old striker Nicolás Siri has joined Salford City on a season-long loan deal from Montevideo City Torque.
That same season, he scored 10 goals in a total of 30 games across all competitions, before going on to play his first minutes in Europe last term – and now he’s getting a first taste of English football.
Siri, who began impressing at an early age as part of the under-15s national team, began his club career at Danubio FC in 2020.
Joining Montevideo a year later, he secured a loan move to Belgian side Lommel SK, scoring twice in just 10 appearances, becoming a first-team starter.
After being scouted by Salford, who are hoping to have a resurgent campaign, with co-owner Gary Neville targeting promotion to the Championship over the next few years, he is one of several signings made in this ambitious transfer window.
Taking the number 27 shirt, he’s made his first cameo against Cheltenham Town, being subbed on in the 67th minute as the Ammies went on to score a late equaliser thanks to a Kadeem Harris header in the 93rd minute of stoppage time.
Speaking of numbers and stats, Siri boasts a very impressive one; he’s in good company with it, too.
Sitting down with club media after his arrival at the Peninsula Stadium on Thursday, the youngster said: “I’m pleased to be here and I can’t wait to start playing. I’m a player who likes running into space, who constantly tries to hit the target and looking to score as much as I can.
“Lommel was a great opportunity, I really enjoyed it, and it helped me prepare for my next career step in Europe. I believe being here is a great opportunity that I am going to make the most out of, and that I am going to enjoy.
“If you do well at this level, you can set yourself up to have a great career. That’s my goal, and that is what I want to achieve here.”
He speaks with plenty of sense for his age. You can see his first full interview in Salford red down below.
Kobbie Mainoo asked Manchester United for a loan away – and the club rejected him
Danny Jones
Manchester United star Kobbie Mainoo has recently asked for a loan move this season, but his employers have reportedly rejected his request.
The Man United academy graduate and young England midfielder is widely considered one of the brightest prospects in the club, not to mention admired in the Three Lions camp already.
After breaking into the first team under Erik ten Hag (having previously been thrown into senior training by Ole Gunnar Solskjær), he was quickly identified as one of the best players United have in the middle of the park, having also scored a number of important goals in big games.
However, Mainoo has somehow found himself not quite in the starting XI under Ruben Amorim – much to the frustration of many supporters and, unsurprisingly, the player himself – leading the Stockport-born starlet to consider the loan market for game time.
Probably the best case scenario for us if the manager isn’t going to play his best pivot player despite having the easiest midfield in the league to play against…
As reported by The Athletic and multiple outlets, Amorim and the powers that be at Man United have made it clear they do not want to loan him out this summer.
Not only do they have no intention of sanctioning a spell away this season, but the manager and the board have reiterated that they want him to stay and fight for his place.
For any Reds fearing that this could ultimately mean the worst for Mainoo at Old Trafford, fret not; it is said that the 20-year-old has no intention of pursuing a permanent transfer away from his boyhood club.
Put simply, the academy graduate wants to guarantee himself not just more regular game time but crucially first team minutes during these crucial early stages of his development as a footballer – something he’s still not sure he’ll get under the Portuguese head coach.
Nevertheless, the United boss has assured that he wants Mainoo, even if he isn’t quite the right fit for his system at the moment/has more to learn about the role he is being asked to play.
It’s fair to say that the revelations have rocked a good chunk of the fan base, with plenty calling for Mainoo to be dropped straight back into the starting lineup.
However, some are urging patience on all sides. One user on X wrote: “Not starting every week at 20 doesn’t mean you need a loan — it means you need patience. Respect the shirt, fight for the spot. If the bench at United breaks your spirit, good luck making a World Cup squad.”
On the other hand, footballer podcaster Alice Abrahams commented: “The fact that it’s reached a point where Mainoo has asked to leave on loan, because he feels that getting away is the best move for his development is frightening, especially when he offers so many solutions in midfield to a lot of Amorim’s problems, both in build-up and centrally is WORRYING.
“And the fact that Amorim doesn’t see him is an answer to that [problem] is deeply worrying.”
What do you make of the situation with Kobbie Mainoo at the moment, Reds, and while you’re here, what do you make of the Man United manager not watching his side’s historic penalty shootout defeat to League Two Grimsby Town?
The Manc -
11th June 2021 
