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UK set to be battered by storms as ‘unprecedented’ El Niño arrives this autumn

Now that's more like what we expect from Manchester.

Emily Sergeant Emily Sergeant - 21st August 2026

The UK is being told to brace for a series of storms this autumn when the ‘unprecedented’ El Niño weather event arrives.

It’s already been a summer of extremes for the country, with multiple heatwaves over the past couple of months, but now it appears that autumn and winter are set to have some extremes of their own, as the Met Office is warning that this upcoming El Niño could be one of the most significant in recent memory.

El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average, which therefore impacts global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.

The natural warming of sea temperatures is forecast to reach more than 3°C in the coming months, according to the Met Office, making this year’s weather event have the potential to be ‘the largest since the 19th century’.

Thunderstorm sky
The UK is set to be battered by storms as ‘unprecedented’ El Niño arrives this autumn / Credit: Johannes Plenio (via Unsplash)

El Niño will create a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa, and north eastern Australia, but over in north western Europe – including the UK – it means we are likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions.

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The UK, and of course Greater Manchester, is absolutely no stranger to a storm around this time of year, but forecasters say this could be an entirely different beast.

“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” warned Professor Adam Scaife, who is the Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office.

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“I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.”

Professor Scaife concluded: “A typical El Nino leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2°C, with 2°C being a really big event. This implies that, if the forecast is accurate, and other forecast systems show similar extreme values, then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.’

Forecasters and officials, however, have warned that it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers, reservoirs, and groundwaters are ‘completely replenished’ – which is when a drought can officially be declared as over.

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It also warned drought conditions could persist into the new year as, despite El Niño, as current forecasts do not suggest this autumn will have the amount of rainfall needed to drive recovery.

Featured Image – Wikimedia Commons