Food to overtake energy bills in driving up UK cost of living crisis
Until now, the cost of living crisis has been most closely associated with energy bills - but soon food costs will overtake energy as the main inflation driver.
Food costs are set to overtake energy bills in driving up UK inflation this summer, a new report has warned.
The report by the Resolution Foundation has found that the cost of living crisis – until now dominated by sky-high energy bills – will soon be driven by rocketing food prices, once again hitting poorer UK households the hardest.
According to the report, whilst energy prices have risen faster in the UK it is still food that makes up the largest share of a typical household’s outgoings.
As a result, as food prices continue to rise whilst energy bills fall back this summer it is predicted that the cost of eating will become the biggest threat to people’s finances.
Food prices have increased by 25 per cent over the past year and a half, greatly impacting the squeeze on living standards in low and middle-income households.
And now, grocery bills are expected to increase again over the summer.
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According to the thinktank behind the report, it was not clear that politicians were currently prepared for another year of food price rises or that “policy debates have caught up with the scale of what is going on”.
Food price inflation reached around 19 per cent in March, the highest in almost half a century. As a result, the report asserts that food prices will be ‘contributing far more than energy to CPI inflation through the remainder of 2023.’
The report said: “By this summer, food costs will have overtaken energy bills in the scale of the shock they are administering to family finances.”
The Resolution added that it can also model the scale of the impact across individual households, suggesting that this summer 16 million households (56 per cent) will face a big shock when it comes to paying for their food.
The Bank of England governer Andrew Bailey told business leaders earlier this month that he was ‘concerned’ that food and other non-energy prices would remain elevated.
Typically, food prices in the UK fall in the summer as locally-grown crops replace those imported from abroad.
However, factory gate prices for milk, meat and other foods have accelerated, in some cases by more than 50% year on year.
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The Resolution Foundation’s report, Food for Thought, says food prices are expected to contribute “more to overall inflation than energy” in the months ahead.
“Between March and September 2023, food prices are expected to contribute around 2 percentage points to inflation each month, while the contribution of energy prices is set to fall from 3 percentage points to less than 1,” the report estimates.
The cost to the nation from higher food prices since the 2019-20 financial year would be £28bn by the end of the summer, compared with an extra £25bn cost from higher energy prices, it added.
Lalitha Try, one of the report’s authors, said: “Everyone realises food prices are rising but it’s less clear that the scale of the increases has been understood in Westminster.”
“What rising food prices have in common with surging energy bills is that they pose a greater challenge to lower-income households, who spend a higher proportion of their income on food – 15%, compared with 10% for the highest-income households in 2019-20.
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“As a result, the effective inflation rate for the poorest 10th of households was almost 50% higher compared with the richest 10th of households in March.”
Featured image – RawPixel
Eats
The Didsbury Dozen loses one of its best as The Dockyard confirms closure
Danny Jones
The Didsbury Dozen has lost one of its strongest stops as the much-loved Dockyard sadly closed for good this past weekend.
A favourite among those taking on the popular Greater Manchester pub crawl and a busy bar in its own right along the main Didsbury Village strip, The Dockyard has been a staple of South Manchester boozing for some time.
However, it’s time as part of the Dozen and in the heart of the community has come to an end, with the staff having completed their final service on Sunday, 19 January.
Sharing a short but heartfelt goodbye on social media, they welcomed customers to join them one last time “to raise a glass and say cheers!”.
An unreal beer garden too. (Credit: The Manc Group)
The post begins: “Right Didsbury… Thank you so much for your welcome and custom when we arrived here in the village, but the time has now come to say goodbye. We have had a blast over the last four years and we hope you have too!”
Although many relatively new to the area or at least its drinking scene will only know it as The Dockyard, the venue has actually been under a lot of names over the years.
Originally known as Times Square, it was then refurbished into a branch of O’Neills in 1996 before going on to re-open as The Stokers Arms in 2014.
Nevertheless, it maintained a regular and loyal following as The Dockyard and many will be “sorry to see it go”; one person commented: “Oh no! We had a fab time in here over Christmas and [were] hoping to return soon. Sorry to see you go and I will be visiting your other sites.
Thankfully, they did go on to confirm that the remaining pubs in Salford Quays and Northwich will remain open – as is the Left Bank location in Spinningfields overlooking the River Irwell. Better still, the building itself will still remain a pub and we already know what’s taking its place:
Although there is still no news on when we can expect to see The Salmon’s second venture launch, if it’s anything like the success the Northern Quarter one has seen then we’re in for a treat.
So don’t worry, The Didsbury Dozen may have taken a hit but it’s still intact and there are plenty of other pubs you can work into the crawl in the meantime.
For now, though, all we can say is rest in peace to The Dockyard Didsbury, you were a real one – we’ll always have the memories.
Michelin guide Prestwich restaurant Osma announces heartbreaking closure
Daisy Jackson
Osma, a beautiful, Michelin-recommended restaurant in Prestwich, has announced its closure next month.
The Scandi-esque restaurant has been a front-runner of Prestwich’s ever-growing food and drink scene since it opened in 2020.
Fronted by Manchester born Danielle Heron, who you might recognise from the Great British Menu and MasterChef: The Professionals 2024, alongside Sofie Stoermann-Naess.
Osma has been a favourite among Prestwich locals over the last five years, famed for its inventive small plates and delicious Sunday roasts – but now its time in the suburb has come to an end.
In a statement shared online, Osma said that they have ‘struggled to find experience staff, leaving us with little to no personal life’.
The restaurant has teased a move into the city centre, where it’s hoped the business will be more sustainable and ready to grow.
“This is by no means the end of Osma,” they wrote.
Their kitchen at Exhibition in the city centre will remain open even after Osma in Prestwich closes on Sunday 9 February.
Osma in Prestwich has announced its closure. Credit: Instagram, @osmakitchenbar
Other food and drink businesses in the village have all been sharing farewell messages, with The Pearl commenting: “Prestwich’s foodie foundations will be very wobbly without the OG cornerstone that welcomed the ‘foodie neighbourhood’ accolades. Good luck in town both, we’ll definitely come and visit the new place.”
Whole Bunch Wines, formerly known as Grape to Grain, said: “Absolutely devastating news for Prestwich. A HUGE loss but a sign of their quality that they’re forced to move.”
Osma’s full statement reads: “Neighbours & Friends. We’ve spoken with some of you already, but it’s time to make it official. It’s with a heavy heart, but excitement for the future, that we have decided to close our Prestwich restaurant ahead of a move to the city centre.
“Being fully transparent – we’ve struggled to find experienced staff, leaving us with little to no personal life. We have made the decision to move on to what we hope will be a more sustainable business that can grow, and allow us more time to follow our dreams. This is by no means the end of OSMA.
“We’re optimistic, but it’s bittersweet. After (almost!) five years we have met so many amazing and incredible people, who we’re proud to call our friends and OSMA family. So many of you have kept coming back week after week – we feel honoured and so grateful for your company. There have been hard days over the years and your kindness, patience and good moods have made such an impact on us to keep pushing forward. Thank you! 🙏🏼
“Of course, we wouldn’t be able to do what we do without our one-of-a-kind staff. Your efforts make OSMA what it is. Even when so understaffed, you all keep moving and help each other get through the day as a team. There’s not many of you, but what you guys can achieve is incredible!
“Lastly, we want to thank our landlord, Tony Freeman, for taking a risk on two 26-year-old girls wanting to open a restaurant. OSMA wouldn’t be here today without him believing in us. You will live on in our memory forever.
“Our last day of service will be Sunday, 9th February. Bookings are open now and we’d love to see as many of you as possible before we go. Stay tuned on our socials as we’ll be throwing a leaving party, too.
“A little housekeeping… gift cards bought after the 9th of Feb 2024 may be refunded to the original payment method, or extended to use at our new site (to be valid for one year after the opening date). Our Kitchen at Exhibition on Peter Street will also remain open as usual, so please don’t be a stranger.
“We appreciate every single one of you… and we’ll be back before you know it! Love Dani & Fie x”
Georgina Pellant -
23rd May 2023 
