Food to overtake energy bills in driving up UK cost of living crisis
Until now, the cost of living crisis has been most closely associated with energy bills - but soon food costs will overtake energy as the main inflation driver.
Food costs are set to overtake energy bills in driving up UK inflation this summer, a new report has warned.
The report by the Resolution Foundation has found that the cost of living crisis – until now dominated by sky-high energy bills – will soon be driven by rocketing food prices, once again hitting poorer UK households the hardest.
According to the report, whilst energy prices have risen faster in the UK it is still food that makes up the largest share of a typical household’s outgoings.
As a result, as food prices continue to rise whilst energy bills fall back this summer it is predicted that the cost of eating will become the biggest threat to people’s finances.
Food prices have increased by 25 per cent over the past year and a half, greatly impacting the squeeze on living standards in low and middle-income households.
And now, grocery bills are expected to increase again over the summer.
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According to the thinktank behind the report, it was not clear that politicians were currently prepared for another year of food price rises or that “policy debates have caught up with the scale of what is going on”.
Food price inflation reached around 19 per cent in March, the highest in almost half a century. As a result, the report asserts that food prices will be ‘contributing far more than energy to CPI inflation through the remainder of 2023.’
The report said: “By this summer, food costs will have overtaken energy bills in the scale of the shock they are administering to family finances.”
The Resolution added that it can also model the scale of the impact across individual households, suggesting that this summer 16 million households (56 per cent) will face a big shock when it comes to paying for their food.
The Bank of England governer Andrew Bailey told business leaders earlier this month that he was ‘concerned’ that food and other non-energy prices would remain elevated.
Typically, food prices in the UK fall in the summer as locally-grown crops replace those imported from abroad.
However, factory gate prices for milk, meat and other foods have accelerated, in some cases by more than 50% year on year.
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The Resolution Foundation’s report, Food for Thought, says food prices are expected to contribute “more to overall inflation than energy” in the months ahead.
“Between March and September 2023, food prices are expected to contribute around 2 percentage points to inflation each month, while the contribution of energy prices is set to fall from 3 percentage points to less than 1,” the report estimates.
The cost to the nation from higher food prices since the 2019-20 financial year would be £28bn by the end of the summer, compared with an extra £25bn cost from higher energy prices, it added.
Lalitha Try, one of the report’s authors, said: “Everyone realises food prices are rising but it’s less clear that the scale of the increases has been understood in Westminster.”
“What rising food prices have in common with surging energy bills is that they pose a greater challenge to lower-income households, who spend a higher proportion of their income on food – 15%, compared with 10% for the highest-income households in 2019-20.
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“As a result, the effective inflation rate for the poorest 10th of households was almost 50% higher compared with the richest 10th of households in March.”
Featured image – RawPixel
Eats
‘This isn’t just like home, this IS home’: Saffa Soul is feeding communities straight from the heart
Danny Jones
That quote isn’t one of ours, nor is it from the owners themselves: that’s what a South African native had to say as they literally welled up eating the food being served by Saffa Soul, who have officially been named among the Best Street Food in Britain.
And now they’ve taken up a new residency right here in Greater Manchester – Circle Square in the city centre, to be specific.
Keshal Devchand, a.k.a. ‘Huggy’, is the man behind the brand, bringing those tears to people’s eyes not just here in town but up and down the UK, as they found out not so long ago during the annual British Street Food Awards (BSFA) last year.
Winning the 2025 title, the reigning champions are simply meeting demand by posting up with their latest semi-permanent space, as an incredible rise in popularity has only ramped up since taking the crown. How they’ll fare remains to be seen, but as always, “the food speaks for itself.”
To be honest, we have every faith they’re going to be just as big a hit as the new resident kitchen inside The Taphouse as they were on Temperance Street and as their various street food stalls up and down the nation since this incredible journey started just 19 months ago.
Yep, this unbelievably hearty, authentic and award-winning foodie phenomenon isn’t even two years old yet, but the Johannesburg-born concept is already on course to write itself into cultural and culinary annals if they carry on the way they’re going.
Not only is everything from the braai (barbeque) meats, to the rich and smoky curries, that famous bunny chow, homemade sauces and everything in between unbelievably flavourful, this stuff is steeped in not just tradition but pure hard work.
‘Huggy’ and co. refuse to do anything that isn’t the real ‘saffa’ way, and it’s these simple but faithfully sustained principles that have seen this food connect with literally tens of thousands all over.
And that’s not just in this country: these guys have already journeyed through the likes of city-centric face-offs, and regional BSFA showdowns, to heading to Germany for the continental equivalent, where they also notched ‘Future Food Legend’.
It’s not hard to see why they’re officially the ‘People’s Choice’ and already mean so much to so many.
From importing wood from his homeland and stoking the fires by hand with a bellow, to keeping his mum’s yellow lentil recipe alive and sharing those same childhood memories with Manc, Brits and, indeed, the rest of the world, Huggy is doing proper boots on the ground community work.
Our favourite story from our recent visit was Huggy telling us about how their appearance at the 2025 European Street Awards turned into so much of a big deal that the entire South African consulate in Munich shut down early so they could eat his food for lunch. Just WOW.
And that’s not just for those who hail from South Africa and have since emigrated; as seen by his various pop-ups since starting out, Saffa Soul is a real come-one, come-all affair.
This is proven even more to be the case by his upcoming plans, too, as not only is the team looking to start their own regular Sunday roast club with inspiration from Supper, but they’re even going to be doing ‘beer cooler’ events in the summer.
Picture South African tradition, part US cook-out, with a sprinkling of Aussie and classic British BBQ parties – it’s one of the things we’re most excited about this year.
We’ve also had a little glimpse at other menu items soon set to be introduced into the rotation, and all we can say is that we’re already salivating.
Honestly, we implore you to go and show Huggy’s gang some love, and we promise you won’t leave a single scrap on your table.
A tiny tiramisu hatch is opening in Ancoats this week
Daisy Jackson
A brand-new dessert spot is set to open its doors (or should that be windows) in Ancoats later this week.
Layr is a new business that is selling just one thing, and doing that one thing really well – tiramisu.
The tiramisu hatch is set to open on Thursday 29 January, with a menu of three different tiramisu flavours, each served individually portioned.
This new addition to Ancoats will be serving freshly-made, alcohol-free, Halal desserts, starting off with a classic tiramisu where sponge is soaked in espresso, then layered with vanilla marscapone and cocoa dust.
Layr has also created a new matcha tiramisu, where the sponge is soaked in matcha instead of coffee.
And completing the menu is a pistachio Layr, with pistachio marscapone, nuts, and pistachio sauce.
Layr’s tiramisu hatch on Radium Street is the latest dessert spot to open in this corner of Ancoats, in a building that’s become a bit of an incubator for sweet treats.
Pistachio tiramisu from the Layr dessert hatchA trio of tiramisu
The building is perhaps most famous for launching The Flat Baker, who operated out of a corner unit for years before becoming too successful and jumping down the road with their own proper bakery and cafe.
Layr also neighbours Baby Mayhem, famed for its extravagant doughnuts, including its bakes topped with ice cream ‘spaghetti’.
Layr will be open from 5pm until 10pm on Thursdays and Fridays, and from 4pm until 10pm on Saturdays and Sundays.
Georgina Pellant -
23rd May 2023 
