Food to overtake energy bills in driving up UK cost of living crisis
Until now, the cost of living crisis has been most closely associated with energy bills - but soon food costs will overtake energy as the main inflation driver.
Food costs are set to overtake energy bills in driving up UK inflation this summer, a new report has warned.
The report by the Resolution Foundation has found that the cost of living crisis – until now dominated by sky-high energy bills – will soon be driven by rocketing food prices, once again hitting poorer UK households the hardest.
According to the report, whilst energy prices have risen faster in the UK it is still food that makes up the largest share of a typical household’s outgoings.
As a result, as food prices continue to rise whilst energy bills fall back this summer it is predicted that the cost of eating will become the biggest threat to people’s finances.
Food prices have increased by 25 per cent over the past year and a half, greatly impacting the squeeze on living standards in low and middle-income households.
And now, grocery bills are expected to increase again over the summer.
ADVERTISEMENT
According to the thinktank behind the report, it was not clear that politicians were currently prepared for another year of food price rises or that “policy debates have caught up with the scale of what is going on”.
Food price inflation reached around 19 per cent in March, the highest in almost half a century. As a result, the report asserts that food prices will be ‘contributing far more than energy to CPI inflation through the remainder of 2023.’
The report said: “By this summer, food costs will have overtaken energy bills in the scale of the shock they are administering to family finances.”
The Resolution added that it can also model the scale of the impact across individual households, suggesting that this summer 16 million households (56 per cent) will face a big shock when it comes to paying for their food.
The Bank of England governer Andrew Bailey told business leaders earlier this month that he was ‘concerned’ that food and other non-energy prices would remain elevated.
Typically, food prices in the UK fall in the summer as locally-grown crops replace those imported from abroad.
However, factory gate prices for milk, meat and other foods have accelerated, in some cases by more than 50% year on year.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Resolution Foundation’s report, Food for Thought, says food prices are expected to contribute “more to overall inflation than energy” in the months ahead.
“Between March and September 2023, food prices are expected to contribute around 2 percentage points to inflation each month, while the contribution of energy prices is set to fall from 3 percentage points to less than 1,” the report estimates.
The cost to the nation from higher food prices since the 2019-20 financial year would be £28bn by the end of the summer, compared with an extra £25bn cost from higher energy prices, it added.
Lalitha Try, one of the report’s authors, said: “Everyone realises food prices are rising but it’s less clear that the scale of the increases has been understood in Westminster.”
“What rising food prices have in common with surging energy bills is that they pose a greater challenge to lower-income households, who spend a higher proportion of their income on food – 15%, compared with 10% for the highest-income households in 2019-20.
ADVERTISEMENT
“As a result, the effective inflation rate for the poorest 10th of households was almost 50% higher compared with the richest 10th of households in March.”
Featured image – RawPixel
Eats
Inside The Black Friar as Salford pub unveils incredible floral display
Daisy Jackson
Spring has really sprung in Salford – legendary pub The Black Friar has just revealed a sensational makeover, with gigantic flowers sprawled across its frontage and a new seasonal menu to go with it.
The historic pub is celebrating the changing of the seasons with both a striking floral installation and a menu that celebrates spring and Salford in equal measure.
Most Mancs will by now have spotted the 4,000 flower-strong installation that now adorns the front of The Black Friar, with bright pink, yellow and purple flowers spilling from a gigantic pink tap.
And all those florals continue inside, with the pub’s Tavern – previously a cosy winter hideaway – now filled with trailing blooms and woodland installations, just off their award-winning garden.
Cheshire-based artist Kelly Louise Chapman is the woman behind this sensational transformation of the much-loved gastropub.
As for the pub’s kitchen, they’ve crafted a new very seasonal and very British menu, with plenty of nods to Black Friar’s Salford roots.
There are dishes like a Boddingtons braised ox cheek (the pub still proudly displays its Boddingtons sign outside), aged beef tartare, butternut squash and ricotta tortellini, and pan-roasted cod fillet.
Spring small plates at The Black Friar pubDelicious spring drinksInside The Tavern at The Black Friar
A popular item from the Valentine’s Day menu – the Cornish crab vol-au-vent – will be sticking around on the spring menu, along with an enhanced grill section that includes a lamb Barnsley chop cooked over coals.
Then for desserts, you’ll be spoilt with a banoffee knickerbocker glory, and passionfruit panna cotta.
And for drinks (because this is a pub, after all), The Black Friar has put together a range of seasonal drinks like a rose sangria sharer, and non-alcoholic sodas like kaffir lime and coconut.
Ben Chaplin, head chef at The Black Friar, said: “This new menu is all about celebrating the best of spring produce.
“We’ve carefully crafted each dish to highlight fresh, seasonal ingredients and bold flavours, adding new depth to our offerings while still delivering the comfort that will always be associated with The Black Friar.
“My top recommendation and personal favourite dish is the Slow-Cooked Boddingtons Braised Ox Cheek.”
Neil Burke, owner of The Black Friar, commented: “We wanted to bring a taste of spring to The Black Friar, inside and out. This floral installation will transform the space and bring sunshine and smiles, whatever the weather!
“My top recommendation on the new menu is the Cumbrian Spiced Lamb Scotch Egg. It’s EXCEPTIONAL.”
To find out more about The Black Friar and to book a table, visit HERE.
Team behind award-winning Higher Ground to open new Bar Shrimp seafood bar in Manchester
Daisy Jackson
Higher Ground, one of Manchester’s very top restaurants, is to open a brand-new seafood bar later this year.
With Bar Shrimp, they’ll be bringing a brand-new offering to town, with cocktails, beers on tap, British seafood and snacks.
Bar Shrimp will come from Daniel Craig Martin, Joseph Otway and Richard Cossins, who at this point are a well-oiled operational machine.
They’re the team behind proudly British bistro Higher Ground, which grows much of its own produce at its Cinderwood Market Garden and earned a Michelin Bib Gourmand within a year of opening.
The same team are also behind Flawd, the beautiful waterside wine bar at Ancoats Marina.
And they’ve cemented themselves as one of Manchester’s most widely acclaimed hospitality teams – even Rick Stein says Higher Ground is one of the best places to eat in the entire country, which is high praise indeed.
Bar Shrimp, set to open in Manchester this winter, aims to be a ‘relaxed and focused bar with delicious food’.
They say: “Whether it’s a beer after work, some food with friends or after dinner drinks late into the night, Bar Shrimp will be a dynamic space where the music and energy evolves throughout the evening where everyone and anyone can come together for a memorable experience.”
They announced the news this morning on Cerys Matthews’ BBC 6Music Show.
British seafood with a side of cocktails? Sounds alright to us.
A location, opening date and more info on Bar Shrimp will follow – stay up to date with their latest HERE.
Georgina Pellant -
23rd May 2023 
