Food to overtake energy bills in driving up UK cost of living crisis
Until now, the cost of living crisis has been most closely associated with energy bills - but soon food costs will overtake energy as the main inflation driver.
Food costs are set to overtake energy bills in driving up UK inflation this summer, a new report has warned.
The report by the Resolution Foundation has found that the cost of living crisis – until now dominated by sky-high energy bills – will soon be driven by rocketing food prices, once again hitting poorer UK households the hardest.
According to the report, whilst energy prices have risen faster in the UK it is still food that makes up the largest share of a typical household’s outgoings.
As a result, as food prices continue to rise whilst energy bills fall back this summer it is predicted that the cost of eating will become the biggest threat to people’s finances.
Food prices have increased by 25 per cent over the past year and a half, greatly impacting the squeeze on living standards in low and middle-income households.
And now, grocery bills are expected to increase again over the summer.
ADVERTISEMENT
According to the thinktank behind the report, it was not clear that politicians were currently prepared for another year of food price rises or that “policy debates have caught up with the scale of what is going on”.
Food price inflation reached around 19 per cent in March, the highest in almost half a century. As a result, the report asserts that food prices will be ‘contributing far more than energy to CPI inflation through the remainder of 2023.’
The report said: “By this summer, food costs will have overtaken energy bills in the scale of the shock they are administering to family finances.”
The Resolution added that it can also model the scale of the impact across individual households, suggesting that this summer 16 million households (56 per cent) will face a big shock when it comes to paying for their food.
The Bank of England governer Andrew Bailey told business leaders earlier this month that he was ‘concerned’ that food and other non-energy prices would remain elevated.
Typically, food prices in the UK fall in the summer as locally-grown crops replace those imported from abroad.
However, factory gate prices for milk, meat and other foods have accelerated, in some cases by more than 50% year on year.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Resolution Foundation’s report, Food for Thought, says food prices are expected to contribute “more to overall inflation than energy” in the months ahead.
“Between March and September 2023, food prices are expected to contribute around 2 percentage points to inflation each month, while the contribution of energy prices is set to fall from 3 percentage points to less than 1,” the report estimates.
The cost to the nation from higher food prices since the 2019-20 financial year would be £28bn by the end of the summer, compared with an extra £25bn cost from higher energy prices, it added.
Lalitha Try, one of the report’s authors, said: “Everyone realises food prices are rising but it’s less clear that the scale of the increases has been understood in Westminster.”
“What rising food prices have in common with surging energy bills is that they pose a greater challenge to lower-income households, who spend a higher proportion of their income on food – 15%, compared with 10% for the highest-income households in 2019-20.
ADVERTISEMENT
“As a result, the effective inflation rate for the poorest 10th of households was almost 50% higher compared with the richest 10th of households in March.”
Featured image – RawPixel
Eats
New two-storey Latin BBQ restaurant, bar, and music venue Dahlia opens in the Northern Quarter
Lydia Mastrolonardo
The Northern Quarter has welcomed a huge two-storey Latin BBQ restaurant, bar and music venue, brought to you by the same team behind Manchester’s beloved Firehouse and Ramona – you just know it’s going to be good with names like that.
Taking over the site formerly home to Pie & Ale, Dahlia has a few different concepts under one roof, but don’t let that confuse you too much.
Up first is Barbacoa Cósmica, an open-fire grill kitchen, with cooking inspired by Latin America and the southern states of America. As the Northern Quarter’s first open fire grill kitchen, guests will have the unique experience of being able to watch the chefs in action, from their kitchen counter seats.
The concept is the product of years of travelling across Latin America, exploring regional recipes and techniques, then condensed down to allow us to take a road trip from San Diego to Jalisco, Mexico City to Oaxaca, all from the comfort of our seats.
Dahlia is also be home to Bar Más Bonita, translating to ‘most beautiful bar’, a lively Liquorita serving up all sorts of Latin American specialties – think vibrant, handcrafted cocktails and salted rims with tequila, mezcal, rum and Latin spirits.
In the evenings, the space will transform into Dahlia Stereo, an intimate two-storey music space powered by a bespoke Hatchett Sound system.
Every element of the venue has been carefully considered by sound engineers and acoustic specialists, including Jonny ‘Oppo’ of Neuron Audio, to ensure the best listening experience possible.
Dahlia in the Northern Quarter. Credit: The Manc Group
Jonny “Oppo” said: “We have been building and working with sound systems for years, but Manchester’s bars and restaurants have never had an installation at this level. Every detail of the room has been designed around how music should sound and feel. It is genuinely exciting for the city.”
In addition to this, the iconic Jonjo Williams of Maribou State and Rich Reason of Hit & Run, have carefully curated a music programme for September to give us a flavour of what’s to come, including sets from Gilles Peterson, Quantic, Gia Fu, DJ Die and Joey T.
With craft being central to the space, almost every element has been made by hand by the Dahlia team and its team of trusted independent artisans and specialist suppliers. From the artwork and upholstery, to the world class sound system and the team’s own bottled Latin spirits, it truly has all been carefully thought through.
To celebrate its launch, Dahlia is offering 50% off the food bill while the new team trains and gets up to speed on Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays in September, before 9pm, when you book a table and follow @dahliastereo on instagram.
Brilliant Saddleworth restaurant shares statement after devastating fire that brought village to a standstill
Daisy Jackson
A brilliant restaurant in Saddleworth has been left ‘badly damaged’ after a huge blaze ripped through it yesterday afternoon.
Hot Duck in Uppermill, a modern Chinese establishment tucked above a takeaway, said that the fire on Sunday 6 September has been ‘devastating’.
Both Hot Duck and Hei Hei, which share a building on the village’s high street, will be closed for the foreseeable future.
But in a statement, Hot Duck said they will ‘do everything we can to come back stronger’.
They reassured customers that everyone is safe following the blaze.
Six fire engines from across Greater Manchester scrambled to the fire yesterday, with High Street closed while emergency services attended.
Locals were asked to avoid the area on Sunday evening.
Hot Duck said in a statement: “Thank you to everyone who has reached out over the last 24 hours. As many of you know, our restaurant has suffered a devastating fire affecting our whole building.
Inside Hot Duck in Uppermill before the fireHot Duck’s incredible dim sum
“Thankfully, everyone is safe, and for that, we’re incredibly grateful. We are still processing what comes next.
“It’s heartbreaking to see something we’ve worked so hard on over the years so badly damaged.
“The kindness, messages, calls, and offers of help mean more than we can put into words. To our customers, friends, neighbors, suppliers, and the wider community, thank you. Your support has given us hope at a time we really needed it.
“For now, the restaurant will remain closed while we begin the long process of rebuilding. It won’t be easy, but we will do everything we can to come back stronger. We’ll keep you updated. We will be back.”
Georgina Pellant -
23rd May 2023 
