Food to overtake energy bills in driving up UK cost of living crisis
Until now, the cost of living crisis has been most closely associated with energy bills - but soon food costs will overtake energy as the main inflation driver.
Food costs are set to overtake energy bills in driving up UK inflation this summer, a new report has warned.
The report by the Resolution Foundation has found that the cost of living crisis – until now dominated by sky-high energy bills – will soon be driven by rocketing food prices, once again hitting poorer UK households the hardest.
According to the report, whilst energy prices have risen faster in the UK it is still food that makes up the largest share of a typical household’s outgoings.
As a result, as food prices continue to rise whilst energy bills fall back this summer it is predicted that the cost of eating will become the biggest threat to people’s finances.
Food prices have increased by 25 per cent over the past year and a half, greatly impacting the squeeze on living standards in low and middle-income households.
And now, grocery bills are expected to increase again over the summer.
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According to the thinktank behind the report, it was not clear that politicians were currently prepared for another year of food price rises or that “policy debates have caught up with the scale of what is going on”.
Food price inflation reached around 19 per cent in March, the highest in almost half a century. As a result, the report asserts that food prices will be ‘contributing far more than energy to CPI inflation through the remainder of 2023.’
The report said: “By this summer, food costs will have overtaken energy bills in the scale of the shock they are administering to family finances.”
The Resolution added that it can also model the scale of the impact across individual households, suggesting that this summer 16 million households (56 per cent) will face a big shock when it comes to paying for their food.
The Bank of England governer Andrew Bailey told business leaders earlier this month that he was ‘concerned’ that food and other non-energy prices would remain elevated.
Typically, food prices in the UK fall in the summer as locally-grown crops replace those imported from abroad.
However, factory gate prices for milk, meat and other foods have accelerated, in some cases by more than 50% year on year.
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The Resolution Foundation’s report, Food for Thought, says food prices are expected to contribute “more to overall inflation than energy” in the months ahead.
“Between March and September 2023, food prices are expected to contribute around 2 percentage points to inflation each month, while the contribution of energy prices is set to fall from 3 percentage points to less than 1,” the report estimates.
The cost to the nation from higher food prices since the 2019-20 financial year would be £28bn by the end of the summer, compared with an extra £25bn cost from higher energy prices, it added.
Lalitha Try, one of the report’s authors, said: “Everyone realises food prices are rising but it’s less clear that the scale of the increases has been understood in Westminster.”
“What rising food prices have in common with surging energy bills is that they pose a greater challenge to lower-income households, who spend a higher proportion of their income on food – 15%, compared with 10% for the highest-income households in 2019-20.
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“As a result, the effective inflation rate for the poorest 10th of households was almost 50% higher compared with the richest 10th of households in March.”
Featured image – RawPixel
Eats
The Peak District walk with amazing views, a cosy cafe, and a great pub at the end
Daisy Jackson
If you’re looking for a country walk that’s got a bit of everything – we’re talking views, lakes, history, picturesque villages and, crucially, pints – this is the one.
Step across the Greater Manchester border into High Peak, and you can take on a circular walk that’s got it all.
The walk takes in all the best bits of the English countryside, from rolling hills to proper pubs.
Park in the village of Hayfield, then head out west to join the Sett Valley Trail, which joins Hayfield and New Mills.
The trail itself is 2.5 miles and follows a former railway line – but now it’s a tree-lined trail that’s perfect for a gentle stroll, cycle or even horse ride.
You’ll pass the Birch Vale reservoir, but won’t be following the trail all the way to New Mills.
Get as far as Emma’s Sett Valley Cafe and stop for an early break – indulgent hot chocolates, great bakes, and a decent amount of brunch dishes beneath colourful festoon lighting.
Emma’s Sett Valley Cafe. Credit: The Manc Group
Once you’re fuelled, head slightly back on yourself to skirt Birch Vale Reservoir, cross the River Sett, and walk towards Sitch Lane.
The road will take you to the very edge of the Peak District ready for an uphill climb to the peak of Lantern Pike.
It’s not a giant by Peak District standards (373m compared to Kinder Scout’s 636m) but the views are 360 degrees – fields on all sides and the incredible Manchester skyline in the distance.
Walk straight over the summit and down the other side, walking along the edge of Hey Wood and across fields full of friendly cows, past Little Hayfield and back into the main village of Hayfield.
Views from the Sett Valley trailSummiting Lantern PikePretty views near Little Hayfield
Here you’ll find The Pack Horse, a country pub that’s gained some serious accolades in recent years.
Famed for its seasonal, locally-sourced menu, at this time of year you can expect hearty post-hike lunches like sharing pies, Manchester eggs, and incredible Sunday roasts.
Despite a top-notch menu, the pub is more than happy to welcome in customers (and dogs) who are covered in mud – as all good countryside boozers should.
Sharing pie at The Pack Horse in HayfieldThe Pack Horse in HayfieldTheir famous Manchester egg
You can see a map of the circular walking route at AllTrails HERE.
A festival dedicated to cheese is coming to Manchester next week
Daisy Jackson
A cheese festival will be launching in Manchester next week, where you can samples cheese, eat cheesy specials from food vendors, and drink some great beers too.
The newly-announced Cheese Fest, which plans to be an annual festival, will bring together eight different cheesemakers, top local food traders, and a beloved Manchester brewery.
And what would cheese be without pickles? Holly Pickles, who runs Pickle Fest and Track’s Pickle Club, will be on hand with the perfect accompaniments.
Cheese Fest has been set up by The Crafty Cheeseman, and all for a very good cause, raising money to support the vital work of The Christie.
Jonathan Pearcey, aka The Crafty Cheeseman himself, was diagnosed with an extremely rare form of cancer back in 2024, and has been receiving treatment at The Christie.
It’s not the first time he’s set up a fundraiser for the charity, but he’s hoping that Cheese Fest will grow bigger and bigger every year, with vendors all donating a portion of their takings to The Christie Charity.
As well as having the chance to sample, buy, and learn about different cheeses from eight producers, you can feast on cheese toasties from Fred’s, and pizzas from Slice Culture.
The event will be taking place next weekend at Track Brewery’s home near Manchester Piccadilly – so you’ll also have some of the city’s best beers on hand to pair with your cheese.
Jonathan said: “Okay, so, huge news. We are launching, in collaboration with the beautiful Track Brewery, a cheese festival in Manchester.
Slice Culture will have pizza specials for the Cheese FestivalTrack Brewery will host Cheese Fest
“Now as far as I’m aware there’s not been one before, or not for a long time, it’s something that I’ve been desperate to do, Track Brewery are the most wonderful people to be doing it with.
“We are doing it on the 22nd November, it’ll be 12 til 5, there’ll be cheese producers there to talk to you about the cheese, you’ll be able to taste their cheese, and more importantly, buy their cheese.
“There’ll be food vendors there doing awesome cheese specials, we will also have obviously all the extra bits you need with cheese – there’ll be someone doing pickles, there’ll be bread. You know, this is about celebrating the wonderful thing that is cheese.”
He added: “The biggest part of this for me is that we are doing it in collaboration with The Christie Charity. As a lot of you know, the journey I’m going through it’s The Christie who treats me, I’ve done previous things to raise money for charity and Track have been amazing getting behind me with this.
“I think it’s super important to try and support places like The Christie as much as we can, which is why all the vendors will be donating a portion of what we take to The Christie.”
Announcing the event online, The Crafty Cheeseman posted: “Please come down and support this cheesy event as where else can you eat and buy cheese whilst donating to charity.”
Cheese Fest will take place at Track Brewery on Sunday 22 November, from 12pm until 5pm.
Georgina Pellant -
23rd May 2023 
