Food to overtake energy bills in driving up UK cost of living crisis
Until now, the cost of living crisis has been most closely associated with energy bills - but soon food costs will overtake energy as the main inflation driver.
Food costs are set to overtake energy bills in driving up UK inflation this summer, a new report has warned.
The report by the Resolution Foundation has found that the cost of living crisis – until now dominated by sky-high energy bills – will soon be driven by rocketing food prices, once again hitting poorer UK households the hardest.
According to the report, whilst energy prices have risen faster in the UK it is still food that makes up the largest share of a typical household’s outgoings.
As a result, as food prices continue to rise whilst energy bills fall back this summer it is predicted that the cost of eating will become the biggest threat to people’s finances.
Food prices have increased by 25 per cent over the past year and a half, greatly impacting the squeeze on living standards in low and middle-income households.
And now, grocery bills are expected to increase again over the summer.
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According to the thinktank behind the report, it was not clear that politicians were currently prepared for another year of food price rises or that “policy debates have caught up with the scale of what is going on”.
Food price inflation reached around 19 per cent in March, the highest in almost half a century. As a result, the report asserts that food prices will be ‘contributing far more than energy to CPI inflation through the remainder of 2023.’
The report said: “By this summer, food costs will have overtaken energy bills in the scale of the shock they are administering to family finances.”
The Resolution added that it can also model the scale of the impact across individual households, suggesting that this summer 16 million households (56 per cent) will face a big shock when it comes to paying for their food.
The Bank of England governer Andrew Bailey told business leaders earlier this month that he was ‘concerned’ that food and other non-energy prices would remain elevated.
Typically, food prices in the UK fall in the summer as locally-grown crops replace those imported from abroad.
However, factory gate prices for milk, meat and other foods have accelerated, in some cases by more than 50% year on year.
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The Resolution Foundation’s report, Food for Thought, says food prices are expected to contribute “more to overall inflation than energy” in the months ahead.
“Between March and September 2023, food prices are expected to contribute around 2 percentage points to inflation each month, while the contribution of energy prices is set to fall from 3 percentage points to less than 1,” the report estimates.
The cost to the nation from higher food prices since the 2019-20 financial year would be £28bn by the end of the summer, compared with an extra £25bn cost from higher energy prices, it added.
Lalitha Try, one of the report’s authors, said: “Everyone realises food prices are rising but it’s less clear that the scale of the increases has been understood in Westminster.”
“What rising food prices have in common with surging energy bills is that they pose a greater challenge to lower-income households, who spend a higher proportion of their income on food – 15%, compared with 10% for the highest-income households in 2019-20.
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“As a result, the effective inflation rate for the poorest 10th of households was almost 50% higher compared with the richest 10th of households in March.”
Featured image – RawPixel
Eats
First look inside Social Osteria, Stockport’s buzzy new Italian restaurant
Lydia Mastrolonardo
That’s right Stopfordians – we’re gaining yet another brand new addition to our town’s blooming food and drink scene, as Social Osteria opens its doors at Weir Mill.
It’s safe to say we’re in good hands, with the geniuses behind The Social Trattoria, named best Trattoria at the Italian Awards UK 2025, being the ones to bring this new taste of Italy to South Manchester.
Just because we are no longer experiencing the weather to match an Italian summer, doesn’t mean we can’t continue eating like we’re there.
Social Osteria can now be found overlooking the River Mersey, as a beautiful 2,000 sq ft space within the buzzing new canalside development, fully equipped with the classic exposed red brickwork, vaulted ceilings and even the restored original kiln.
As you approach the restaurant, you are greeted by a sunken courtyard and riverside seating, making for the perfect alfresco dining spot, when the warmer weather finally rolls back around.
With the meaning of Osteria being an Italian tavern, for locals to gather and enjoy each other’s company, good wine and honest, flavourful food – the team have stayed true to the name. You can expect dim, ambient lighting, an open kitchen, fresh small plates, flavourful 48-hour pizzas, and traditional pasta.
Vibrant dishes at Social Osteria in Stockport. Credit: The Manc Group
This glamorous new restaurant is promising a spectacular menu, from cacio e pepe butter beans to guanciale topped pizzas and their very own slow-cooked beef shin and pork shoulder paccheri ragu, you know we’re in the right place.
With Italian food running in the family, the team’s cooking practices are rooted in traditional methods, passed down through the generations and then presented to us, with the freshest of ingredients.
It suits Capital&Centric, who’ve taken the same approach to Weir Mill itself – embracing the character of the historic mill whilst transforming it into a vibrant community, for generations to come.
Inside Social Osteria at Weir Mill. Credit: The Manc Group
Set below Stockport’s iconic viaduct, the £60m neighbourhood is now home to 253 apartments alongside bustling cafés, wine bars and stunning restaurants akin to Social Osteria, accompanied by plenty of outdoor seating, green spaces, and riverside viewpoints.
Where Osteria Social now calls home is part of Stockport’s £1 billion Town Centre West masterplan, adding to the town’s growing reputation as one of the best locations to live in the UK.
Social Osteria will officially open Thursday 22 October, at Weir Mill. Be sure to book your tables early as we fear this one might get a little booked up.
Traitors star and comedian Joe Lycett is putting cash behind the bar at two Manchester pubs
Daisy Jackson
Comedian Joe Lycett is putting money behind the bar at two Manchester pubs this week, as he continues to encourage people to get out and support their local boozers.
The TV favourite – who is also currently one of the stars on The Traitors – announced the news as he bid farewell to his fictional TV pub The Lycett Arms.
On the show, he said: “There are 45,000 pubs in the UK – go and give them some love.”
Joe Lycett then proceeded to list 30 brilliant pubs up and down the country, including two in Manchester, and announced that the drinks are on him this week.
He told audiences: “[This] Friday I’ll be putting a little bit of money behind the bar in all the pubs you’ve just seen. I hope you can have a drink on me.”
The pubs he picked out in Manchester are the iconic old boozer The Peveril of the Peak, and the excellent pub and comedy venue The Old Monkey.
The Peveril of the Peak on Great Bridgewater Street is a real icon in the city centre, with its green tiled exterior and its cosy interiors.
Until recently, it was run by legendary local landlady Nancy Swanick, who died in July at the age of 96.
The Peveril of the Peak pub in ManchesterInside The Pev
Commenting on Joe Lycett’s post about his pub offer, they wrote: “You are all more than welcome at The Pev. Give me a shout and I will sort you out with a pie, Joe.”
The Old Monkey, meanwhile, is famed for its comedy nights run by Trapdoor Comedy Club, and for its open mic sessions, as well as award-winning beers.
The Portland Street pub has also very kindly agreed to match Joe Lycett’s donation, which means double the budget for pints for Mancs.
Georgina Pellant -
23rd May 2023 
